The AGT Council enlisted the professional services of Futures at Work LLC principal, Dr. Katherine LY Green, to develop a path for the re-vitalization of AGT. Dr. Green has over three decades of HR experience as staff and consultant with the federal government, industry leaders, and HR professionals. She specializes in building the capacity of leaders and organizations. Her background includes training, consulting, teaching and research in HR/OD topics. She is certified in Strategic Workforce Planning, and uses foresight in succession planning, the aging workforce, change management and leadership. Based on her discussions with AGT Board members, Dr. Green prepared the following action plan, AGT 2020, for the re-vitalization of AGT:

Association of Government Toxicologists (AGT)

Meeting Summary:

Future Directions Submitted by Katherine LY Green, PhD

Meeting Purpose To explore the association’s future and to support the leadership, and members, in choosing a forward path that sustains AGT’s viability to 2020 and beyond.

Background Like many associations, AGT is grappling with a change in membership, interest and focus. The association, over time, has experienced: a diminishing number of members, fewer members willing to assume leadership responsibilities, and low attendance at regular meetings. If nothing changes, then a likely possibility is the eventual dissolution of the association, one that has a rich and meaningful 35-year history for former and current members. Initial conversations over the last several months indicate an interest, by some members, in sustaining AGT. Though it is less clear what actions and resources would best achieve that outcome, and what aspects of the association’s culture and operations would fit in the future.

Meeting Approach The concept of foresight, the practice of looking forward, was introduced to participants followed by a brief discussion of a future’s mindset. Three AGT scenarios were created to help members explore what could happen by 2020, and beyond, depending on actions taken or not taken by the leadership. The scenarios are stories about a range of possible futures; each involves moving in different directions that address current downward trends of membership, interest level and volunteer participation.

1) Business As Usual – essentially no major changes to operating processes, membership or activities; a continuation of a slow membership decline and low interest in programs, meetings and the association

2) Government Regulatory Science Association – reorient AGT’s focus and members to include those involved in US regulatory work, policies and concerns. Some growth in membership, a broadening of diversity (age, agency)

3) Society of Toxicologists Workgroup – AGT realigns with SOT and becomes a Special Interest Group (SIG) of government scientists; benefits from resources, connections and visibility of SOT globally

In small groups, members explored each scenario and identified positive and negative aspects of each future. When relevant, they identified assumptions about the future that supported their views. After members reviewed all three future scenarios, one person was asked to collate the ‘positive responses’ for each scenario. The ‘positive’ themes were then combined into a list that served as a starting point for identifying a shared view of the ‘preferred AGT future’ in 2020 and beyond.

Highlights of Scenario Work There was general agreement that each of the three scenarios contained aspects of a desirable future but none of them, as described, offered a clear and desirable path forward.

Scenario #1 Business as Usual could result in the dissolution of AGT if there was no intervention. It implied that membership would continue a steady decline, difficulties of recruiting volunteer leaders would undermine the association’s ability to meet stated goals and programming, and aging members would retire. Combined, these trends could facilitate the end of AGT as it now exists. However, there were positive aspects of this scenario. AGT offers a level of comfort and familiarity through established routines, familiar venues with the same people that strengthen connections over time. The group’s focus is unique, providing a niche for a select segment of government workers.

Scenario #2 Government Regulatory Science Association could be a catalyst to broaden outreach to others in government regulatory work. The expansion could provide new and different change: new members from different disciplines, new energy and interest in other topics, increased information exchanges and more resources. However, the expanded group’s focus may dilute the interest in toxicology and generate interest in different issues, concerns beyond the toxicology umbrella. While offering a diversity of discipline and people, it was assumed the expanded membership would change the dynamics of the meetings, program topics and ultimately the character of AGT. The change wasn’t perceived as either positive or negative, rather it would be a change that would undermine the current comfort enjoyed by a shared interest—toxicology.

Scenario #3 SOT Workgroup suggested that AGT could become a working group or SIG within SOT. The group would benefit from significant domestic and global reach, increased access to people, money and structural support. The new relationship would widen access to people operating in different sectors, offer options to attend more and different educational events, and possibly increase fiscal resources. The downsides of this scenario include: loss of autonomy over governance and operational approaches, and a diffused or minimized focus on government employees within the Toxicology field. Being a workgroup of a much larger entity offers access to administrative structures and resources that would support them, however the losses seemed to outweigh the gains.

AGT 2020 →: Future of Choice The members selected aspects of each scenario they wanted to see continued, or added, in AGT’s vision of a desirable future. The ideas were translated into themes-- not listed in terms of priority.

1) Maintain a Government Identity – government for government (unique place for government employees to connect, share experiences, learn about emerging trends, changes within the government arena)

2) Social Aspects has Value - meeting with others in face-to-face settings off-campus (e.g. meetings, seminars, summer picnic) is valuable and desirable

3) Comfort and Familiar - seeing other AGT members at meetings, seminars creates a comfortable, familiar experience

4) Local-centric - local refers to geography as in the DMV (District, Maryland, Virginia), and local as in HUB of government scientists

5) Membership Growth – desirable to have a larger and more diverse membership (to include age, gender, discipline)

6) Platform for Global Recognition (as offered from the SOT scenario)

7) Broader access to resources (information, people, money)

Things That Need to Change for AGT 2020 to Happen

1. Grow the membership – the idea of expanded membership is appealing as a future goal but not as envisioned in scenario #2 or #3. It was recognized that membership expansion touches on numerous issues related to the current definition of ‘membership’ and limitations of current bylaws:

☞ Retirees want (but can’t) be full-members after retirement

☞ AGT would benefit from more disciplines (how is unclear)

☞ Develop non-government relationships (academia, students)

☞ Younger generations prefer digital vs. face-to-face contact

2. Reduce leadership administrative burden

☞ Current responsibilities are too much for one person

☞ Reduce burden by redefining areas of responsibility

☞ Form committees to assume responsibility

3. Strengthen future leader pipeline

☞ No one in the pipeline for future leadership roles

☞ Lack of interest in assuming leadership positions

Recommendations for Next Steps Caveat: In order for any change effort to succeed, a point person (in a leadership role) has responsibility for ensuring: each part of the plan is initiated and completed, necessary resources are made available in a timely manner, and the results of each change effort are shared with AGT members. If members are unwilling to volunteer to implement parts of the change strategy, then AGT may find it expedient to hire outside assistance (e.g. designing and maintaining social media platforms for AGT members) or an event manager to organize people, food and speakers for events.

A. Create a Draft 2020 Vision Statement. Create a short description of the AGT 2020 scenario based on the desirable aspects extracted from each of the three scenarios (see list), and distribute it to members as part of the 2/23 meeting minutes. Included with this information should be an honest assessment of the trends/issues affecting AGT’s future: declining membership, lack of a leadership pipeline, slowing interest in programs and services (except seminars.) These trends precipitated the desire to obtain outside guidance in figuring out if and how to move forward

B. Survey Members about Draft 2020 Vision Statement. Within two weeks of the meeting, administer a one-page survey (e.g. Survey Monkey) for member comment. The survey is intended to: share the draft vision of a desirable future for 2020 and beyond, solicit ideas and support for changes coming in the next 3-6 months, inspire members to get involved in creating AGT’s future, and create opportunities for emerging leaders to get in the pipeline

C. Finalize the AGT 2020 Vision. Use it as a framework for all of the change efforts going forward. For example:

▪ Recruitment – any new recruiting efforts should use the AGT 2020 Vision statement as the value proposition (e.g., the reason people would join)

▪ Retention of Existing Members – use the statement to remind people of the unique value AGT offers those in government with relevant interests in toxicology. This statement could be included in each and all communications with members

▪ AGT Social Media Use & Brand – in whatever social media venue AGT uses to advertise, inform or connect members; the vision statement explains AGT’s unique role and purpose in serving government employees

D. Change AGT’s Bylaws. Decide on which aspects of AGT’s structure, bylaws and services that, if changed, offer the greatest alignment with the desirable future described in Vision 2020

E. Create a 3-6 month Change Plan. Map out a plan with timelines, people and resources and expected outcomes for the various change efforts. Share it with the membership on a regular basis, keeping them apprised of the efforts made and degrees of success. If social media platforms are used, then use those to keep members apprised of the plan’s success

F. Reevaluate the Plan. After six-months, evaluate the change efforts and recalibrate expectations, resources and goals based on results to date

Katherine LY Green, PhD Green Consulting Group LLC 4